2023-08-07 08:29:02
Illustrative photo
The meeting of representatives of 40 states in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) dedicated to the Russian-Ukrainian settlement has ended. So far it is difficult to draw any conclusions, but I would note some things, writes the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alfred Kokh.
First, Saudi Arabia is reported to have declared its “willingness to lend its good services to help achieve a solution that will lead to permanent peace.” She also supported the UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion and annexation of the sovereign territory of Ukraine.
Taking into account the fact that now (after Ukrainian surface drones damaged a Russian warship and tanker) Russian offshore oil exports have become extremely dangerous (at least in the Black Sea), a “good service” from Saudi Arabia could be a sharp increase in production oil in order to stabilize oil prices and prevent them from skyrocketing after Russian volumes fell out of the market.
I already wrote about this and I want to remind you once again: Kashcheev’s death is buried here, Putin is most afraid of this. He always believed that the cartel with Saudi Arabia was the key to his financial unsinkability. And if this alliance falls apart, then Russia will not be able to finance the war.
This is the easiest and most bloodless way to stop the war – just deprive Putin of money. And the key to this solution is in the hands of Saudi Arabia. Thus, the task of Ukrainian diplomacy (and the diplomacy of its allies, of course) is to convince Saudi Arabia to take this step.
I am sure that the US and Europe have arguments that will force the Saudis to take this step. And Saudi Arabia’s statement of “willingness to render its good services” seems to me to say just that.
Secondly, almost all participants in the meeting are inclined to believe that the final plan should be based on the “Zelensky formula”. However, the DPA agency reports that in addition to the Zelensky plan, an alternative peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia was also discussed.
According to the DPA (citing diplomatic sources), “this new plan includes maintaining the integrity of Ukraine, a ceasefire on all fronts, the start of UN-monitored peace talks, and an exchange of prisoners. It is also noted that at the talks in Jeddah, Kyiv no longer insisted on accepting the Zelensky peace plan.
Of course, representatives of Ukraine immediately denied their rejection of the Zelensky plan. However, no one denied the fact that an alternative plan was introduced. But what is its novelty? What is the difference from the “Zelensky formula”?
By the method of elimination, I came to the conclusion that the Saudi plan differs only in that they (unconditionally recognizing the borders of Ukraine as of 1991), nevertheless, offer to immediately stop hostilities and start negotiations without waiting for the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Whether this plan suits Ukraine or not is up to Zelensky and his team. If the price for passing it is Saudi Arabia’s willingness to sharply increase production, then, coupled with a naval blockade of Russian ports, this will deprive Putin of oil revenues. So I would at least seriously consider this plan.
Because, having lost the opportunity to finance the war in the required volumes, Putin will not be able to maintain his grouping in Ukraine in a combat-ready state for a long time. And after some time, either he will take her out of there, or the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply drive the Russians away with a filthy broom, and they will not be able to put up worthy resistance.
However, all this should be carefully calculated and analyzed. The only thing I am firmly convinced of is that the proposal of Saudi Arabia cannot be rejected out of hand. And if a decision is nevertheless made to abandon it, then all interested parties need to patiently, very sensibly and reasonably explain why this plan will not work.
We must not lose such important partners as Saudi Arabia.
Even their neutral stance is very valuable. Sooner or later they will make the right decision.
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