In Germany, the debate about peace in Ukraine is gaining momentum, and there is even debate about german peacekeepers. While the West debates, Vladimir Putin is preparing for an even longer war.
It must have been an unimaginable horror for many young Russians. They wanted to have fun, drink and dance with friends at a Moscow nightclub on the weekend. But suddenly the music stopped, the police stormed in, and all the guests had to kneel.
Video footage shows security forces shouting at some of them. The authorities searched a total of three discos that evening for young men and are said to have taken some directly to Russian recruiting offices.
The men had planned a club evening, but now they might end up in the war in Ukraine or in the Russian province of Kursk.
Actually, the Kremlin’s goal has long been to keep the war out of Moscow. Because the power elite that has money and influence lives in the Russian capital. If russia were to conscript the sons of these families for military service, that would be a risk for Putin.
The fact that Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin is now using force to recruit people in the Russian capital is a sign of how tense the personnel situation in the Russian army is. The russian president is slowly running out of cannon fodder after many months of war in which, according to NATO figures, more than 1,000 Russian soldiers were injured or killed every day.
The raids on Moscow clubs are just one indication that the russian leadership is not expecting a quick end to the war. But as the Kremlin prepares for an even longer conflict in Ukraine, ceasefires and possible peacekeepers are being debated in Western countries. Putin once again made no secret of the fact that he currently does not want peace.
The debate about possible security guarantees for Ukraine is not new. There has been discussion for a long time about possible NATO membership or peacekeepers who could secure peace following a possible success in negotiations between Kiev and Moscow.
One thing is obvious: from a Ukrainian and Western viewpoint, a peace agreement in Ukraine should in any case mean that Russia cannot attack again in a few years to secure further Ukrainian territories.
How Putin should be deterred from further attacks has been discussed in the West since 2022. French President emmanuel Macron brought peacekeepers from NATO states into discussion at the beginning of 2024. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) also did not want to rule out an international presence to secure a ceasefire at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels on wednesday. When asked about a possible role for Germany, she said that everything that would serve peace in the future would of course be “supported with all our strength from the German side.”
This statement is particularly exciting because Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had excluded German soldiers from Ukraine. “To be clear: As German Chancellor, I will not send any soldiers from our Bundeswehr to Ukraine,” he said in a video message in February 2024. “That is true. Our soldiers can rely on that. And you can rely.” And on Wednesday in the Bundestag, he vehemently contradicted his foreign minister: It was “fully inappropriate” to speculate now about what exactly would happen after the end of the war.
In any case, Baerbock is pursuing a double strategy with her initiative: On the one hand, she is concerned with strategic ambiguity. Putin shouldn’t always find out directly which options are on the table and which are not. In addition, the Europeans should be mentally prepared for the fact that they too will have to play a role in securing peace in the future.
How does the Kremlin’s internal power dynamics affect its military strategies and recruitment practices?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Defense Expert dr. Elena Petrov
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome, Dr. Petrov. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the evolving situation in Russia regarding military recruitment amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Dr. Elena Petrov (DEP): Thank you for having me. it’s a critical time for discussions like this, especially given the recent developments.
TNE: The situation in Moscow sounds quite alarming, especially with reports of young people being recruited directly from nightclubs.Can you shed some light on what is driving the Kremlin to this level of forceful recruitment?
DEP: Absolutely. This shift in strategy is quite significant. Traditionally, the Kremlin has aimed to keep the war distant from the urban elite, particularly in Moscow, where the influential reside. By forcibly recruiting young men from social venues, it shows the desperation within the Russian military ranks as they struggle with manpower issues. This suggests that the Kremlin is reaching a critical point where they can no longer afford to maintain that distance from the war’s impacts.
TNE: It truly seems that even in the face of this escalating situation, the debate around peace settlements in Ukraine, particularly from Germany, is intensifying. How do these two narratives relate?
DEP: The German discussion about peacekeepers is intriguing. On one hand, it indicates a willingness to engage in diplomatic solutions; on the other, it contrasts sharply with Russia’s military operations. As EU nations debate their roles, Putin seems intent on preparing for a prolonged conflict. This disconnect can create a power vacuum, where military actions overshadow diplomatic efforts if not carefully managed.
TNE: You mentioned the power elite in Moscow. How does this internal group influence the Kremlin’s strategy, especially with potential risks of conscripting their sons?
DEP: The Moscow elite has historically enjoyed a shield from the war’s direct consequences. If conscription were to affect their families, there might be significant backlash against putin’s regime. As such, the Kremlin’s forced recruitment of ordinary citizens suggests that they are feeling the pressure and possibly risk alienating their primary support base. It’s a precarious balancing act.
TNE: Given NATO’s statistics indicating a lack of personnel, do you think Putin can sustain this level of recruitment without facing larger societal unrest?
DEP: That’s the key concern. The current approach may yield short-term manpower, but it risks igniting societal unrest, particularly among youth who see their leisure and future jeopardized. If the public begins to associate nightlife or personal freedoms with the draft, resentment could grow rapidly, potentially leading to protests. the Kremlin will need to tread carefully, as the implications could be both politically and socially significant.
TNE: Lastly, as international observers, how should we interpret the West’s role in this conflict now that the German peacekeeper debate is underway?
DEP: The West’s role is crucial at this juncture. While discussions around deploying peacekeepers could signal an intention to stabilize the situation, it’s imperative that such actions do not provoke further escalation from Russia. The West must present a united front,combining diplomacy and deterrence,to encourage a resolution while being prepared for the potential repercussions of Russia’s aggressive recruitment tactics.
TNE: Thank you, dr. Petrov. This conversation highlights the complex interplay between military needs, societal implications, and international diplomacy. We appreciate your insights.
DEP: Thank you for having me. It’s vital that we continue to analyze and understand these ongoing developments in such a dynamic global landscape.