Even if the assumption that it is different seems justified, relevant communication channels between Washington and Beijing remain intact. Just days ago, security advisor Jake Sullivan held a conference with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi for several hours in Zurich. It was then said that Sullivan had emphasized the value of “open lines of communication” and raised issues on which the US government had “concerns about measures taken by China.” It is about Xinjiang, Hong Kong and, of course, Taiwan, after President Xi Jinping has so emphatically spoken out in favor of reunification. Since then, speculations have been circulating that Beijing will recapture the breakaway island by force if necessary. Accused of separatism by Xi, President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei lets go of all diplomatic caution and declares: One is not separatist, but sovereign.
This will hardly impress Beijing, instead speculation is fueling about the next steps towards Taiwan. It is not yet possible to predict which these will be. Perhaps in anticipation of this, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken calls the US commitment to Taiwan “rock solid,” whatever that means. China’s activities, meaning fighter jets that flew in large numbers through Taiwanese airspace, are “provocative and destabilizing”. He hoped that this would not happen again, and that there would be too great a risk of misunderstandings that could escalate. General Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s Minister of Defense since February and previously Director General of the National Security Office, seconded himself when he believed he recognized “a serious situation that has not been in 40 years”.
Such findings are likely to justify a special defense budget of more than $ 12 billion, with two-thirds of the spending devoted to anti-ship weapons such as land-based missile systems. Chiu campaigns for this budget before the responsible parliamentary committee and repeats what has been the common scenario since the separation of Taiwan from mainland China in 1949. If something happens, it is in the sensitive Taiwan Strait. What is meant is the 180-kilometer-wide strait between the Chinese province of Fujian and the island of Taiwan. This is where international shipping finds the shortest route to take from the East China Sea in the north to the South China Sea.
China is also seeing rising military spending, especially aircraft and amphibious warships are being modernized. Equipment with which the People’s Liberation Army would be able to maneuver the Air Force and Navy against Taiwan. Opposite the Taiwanese sheet China Times Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng states that Beijing is already in a position to face the conflict, but will not be fully ready for another three years. “In 2025 you will have the necessary capacities. However, if you want to start a war, you have to consider many factors. “
Condition: peaceful means
Primarily the behavior of the USA. In the middle of last week, Joe Biden spoke to President Xi Jinping on the phone, who said he had agreed to respect the international agreements on Taiwan. “We have made it clear,” said the White House press release, “that we should not do anything other than abide by existing agreements.” Unfortunately, it was not clear what this was referring to. Washington has been pursuing a “one-China policy” since 1979, with which it officially recognizes the People’s Republic instead of Taiwan, based primarily on the Taiwan Relations Act. When it was passed by the US Congress in April 1979, it was signaled that the US decision to break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan was based on the expectation that its future would be determined solely by peaceful means. Protection of the “Republic of China”, as Taiwan’s official name, against military attacks is assured. During the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995/96, the USA sent two aircraft carriers at the same time. Given the tension with China, what would you set in motion now?
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