2023-06-25 17:42:23
► What do we know about the mutiny of the Wagner group?
In the early hours of June 24, several thousand heavily armed fighters from the Wagner paramilitary group entered Russian territory from Ukraine. At their head, the billionaire Evgueni Prigojine, an entrepreneur specializing in geopolitics who, through his factories to manufacture false information, his “patriotic” media and his private militia deployed in Africa and Ukraine, has long worked in the shadows in the service of the Kremlin. This time, he says he wants to lead a “walk for justice” and demands the departure of his sworn enemy, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Before dawn, his troops entered the city of Rostov-sur-le-Don without meeting any resistance and seized the headquarters of the Russian army in charge of the offensive in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, who accuses him without naming him of ” treason “Talk about ” to punish “ traitors. When Wagner’s forces were no more than 200 km from the capital, Yevgueni Prigojine ordered the mercenaries to ” to return “ in their camps for “avoid a bloodbath”.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko then explains that he negotiated “stoppage of movement” Wagner’s troops. At the end of this crazy day when the Kremlin shook, the mutineers left Rostov-on-the-Don to the cheers of passers-by. The paramilitary assault ultimately claimed the lives of at least 15 regular army pilots, who lost six helicopters and an intelligence aircraft to the mercenaries.
► How did we get here?
In the spring of 2022, the Wagner group gains weight on the Ukrainian front by recruiting prisoners in exchange for an amnesty. Moscow then sees it as an inexpensive way to overcome the weaknesses of an understaffed Russian army, while avoiding an unpopular general mobilization. Its leader, Evgueni Prigojine, is now at the head of a real army in the army of 50,000 men, with its artillery, its armored vehicles, and even its planes. Their role takes on importance in the interminable and bloody conquest of the city of Bakhmout. Thanks to the fighting, the businessman who has long shunned the media launches a guerrilla war against the Russian command, accused of incompetence.
From the city of Bakhmout, where he coordinates the group’s operations, Prigojine multiplies his speeches to denounce the delays in the delivery of shells and to agonize with insults to the Minister of Defense Sergei Choigu, while Vladimir Putin lets it go. The confrontation reached a new stage on June 5, when Wagner took a Russian officer hostage whom he accused of having mined a road that his men were to take. But the point of no return was reached on June 10: Wagner’s volunteers were ordered to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, which wanted to regain control.
Evgueni Prigojine refuses and tries in vain to plead his case with the Kremlin. Is it the fear of losing everything that drives him to mutiny? On June 23, Wagner’s boss broke a final taboo by questioning the justification for the invasion, hammered home at length by Russian propaganda. Then, a few hours later, he accused the Russian army of having carried out deadly strikes on the camps of its fighters. This is the signal for the uprising against the Russian commander.
► What future for Evgueni Prigojine and the Wagner group?
The protagonists of this day remained very discreet about the outcome of the negotiations between the Russian authorities and the leader of the Wagner group. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who served as“technical intermediary” between the two camps, according to the Belarusian political scientist Artyom Chraïbman, evoked “safety guarantees for Wagner’s fighters”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave assurances that the mutineers could return to their camps without being prosecuted. He added that those who wish will be able to integrate the regular troops of the Ministry of Defence. If many commentators evoke the probable dissolution of the units of Wagner in Ukraine, nothing was confirmed on this subject Sunday, at midday.
The same uncertainty surrounds the fate of the leader of the mercenaries, Yevgueni Prigojine. Again, the Kremlin remained vague, indicating only that the legal proceedings against him would be dropped and that he was going to Belarus in an unnamed exile. For the rest, we do not know what the putschist obtained in exchange for stopping the offensive towards Moscow.
Will he be able to keep his media empire and his many businesses in Russia? What will become of Wagner in Ukraine and especially in Mali, Sudan and the Central African Republic where the group advises local authorities and controls mining deposits? And what about Yevgueni Prigojine’s main official demand: the departure of Defense Minister Sergei Choigu? Several analysts expect his ouster in the coming weeks, but nothing has been officially announced.
► How can these events influence the war in Ukraine?
When the mutiny was announced, the kyiv authorities were quick to mock their opponents. “Russia’s weakness is obvious. Total weakness”, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The coup, however, was too brief to weaken Russian forces containing Ukrainian offensives in Donbass and southern Ukraine. The intelligence services did not observe any movement of troops from the front line towards Moscow in order to secure the capital, nor of Russian soldiers abandoning their position. Over the past two days, the Russians say they have successfully repelled several raids from their opponents, particularly in the regions of Donetsk (east), but also Zaporijjia (south).
L’Institute for the Study of War (ISW) American recalls that Yevgueni Prigojine was careful not to disturb the work of the Russian headquarters for operations in Ukraine, installed in Rostov-on-the-Don, contenting himself with having the premises monitored by his mercenaries. “The Prigozhin rebellion has nevertheless shown that Russian forces are short of reserves in many rear areas and will almost certainly degrade the morale of Russian personnel in Ukraine”specify the analysts the ISW.
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#day #Putin #shivered