On November 27, Syrian rebels launched an offensive against Bashar al-Assad‘s regime in Syria. It ended on december 8 with the capture of Damascus and the overthrow of the regime.This incident revealed the weakness of the Syrian army: the regime’s aviation was hit, and the ground forces realy collapsed, writes The Telegraph.
The opposition’s rapid advance has also highlighted Russia’s underappreciated problems.Although Russian troops supported the Assad regime, they did not actively intervene as the opposition captured cities one by one.
To the governor of the russian Federation Vladimir Putin it was not an option – it depended on the wagner Group, the private military company that is now Moscow’s main force in Syria.
this is a lesson for all governments: mercenaries are not a reliable instrument of public policy. The Wagner group, created by Yevgeny prigozhin in 2014, became famous after the annexation of Crimea and the intervention in Syria. Its irregular forces allowed Moscow to avoid direct obligation for its actions.
But motivated by revenue, the Wagnerites demanded a share of Syria’s oil revenue to save the Assad regime. This strengthened the PMC owner Evgenia Prigozhinabut it caused internal conflicts.
In 2023, as Russia’s war in Ukraine escalates, the wagner Group joins the fight. The mercenaries won a pyrrhic victory at Bakhmut, but this resulted in heavy losses and discontent. In June 2023, the mercenaries broke out, occupied Rostov-on-Don and moved to Moscow. Putin granted them amnesty, but Prigozhin soon died in a plane crash, effectively ending the group.
With the Assad regime under threat once again and the Russian army on the prowl in Ukraine, Moscow’s commercial interventionist forces were in disarray.After all, any state that relies on mercenaries runs the risk of collapse, as Russia did between 2014 and 2023.
What role do mercenaries like the Wagner group play in shaping foreign military strategies?
Interview: The Impact of Mercenaries on State Stability in Syria and Beyond
Editor of Time.news (TN): Welcome, Dr. Alexei Ivanov, an expert in geopolitical studies and military strategy. Let’s dive into the recent developments in Syria, notably the captured offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the challenges faced by Russian forces.
Dr. Alexei Ivanov (AI): Thank you for having me. The recent offensive launched by Syrian rebels from November 27 to December 8 marked a significant shift in the power dynamics within syria. The fall of Damascus signals a critical blow to the Assad regime and reflects the syrian army’s vulnerabilities—notably, their limited air capabilities and the crumbling morale of ground troops.
TN: The offensive has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russian support. Can you elaborate on the implications of Russia’s passive role during this confrontation?
AI: Absolutely. While the Russian military has traditionally backed Assad, the lack of active intervention during the opposition’s rapid advance highlighted serious operational weaknesses.Russian troops didn’t engage decisively, which raises concerns about the reliability of mercenary forces like the Wagner Group, a private military company that has become pivotal in Moscow’s military strategy.
TN: Speaking of the Wagner Group, how have their operations shaped the current situation in Syria?
AI: The Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, transitioned from Crimea to Syria and was integral in supporting Assad. However,their motivation was primarily profit-driven,often leading to conflicts over oil revenues and diminishing loyalty to Russian state objectives. The dependence on such mercenary groups can severely undermine public policy and strengthen factions rather than focusing on cohesive state governance.
TN: It seems that the russian regime is now in a precarious position with both the Wagner Group’s recent turmoil and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. What lessons can be drawn from this situation?
AI: One key takeaway is that reliance on mercenaries can lead to instability. The Wagner Group’s aggressive positions resulted in significant losses, catalyzing internal dissent, culminating in the upheaval we witnessed in June 2023 when Prigozhin attempted to march on Moscow. Following his death in a plane crash, the group effectively ended. This exemplifies how mercenary forces can become unpredictable and unreliable.
TN: Given the current geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, what should governments consider regarding their military engagements?
AI: Governments must critically evaluate their reliance on mercenaries for military operations. While they may seem like a viable option for deniability, as seen in Russia’s approach, the unpredictability and potential for rebellion—much like what Russia experienced—can lead to greater instability. A diverse and well-trained regular army may provide a more stable solution to maintain sovereign control and ensure national interests align with military strategies.
TN: what practical advice would you give to policymakers regarding military strategies in conflict zones?
AI: Policymakers should prioritize building a robust military infrastructure that emphasizes training and fidelity over outsourcing to mercenaries. Additionally, they must engage in transparent operations that foster trust among the populace. establishing strong state institutions is essential for long-term stability, serving as a bulwark against the chaotic influence of mercenary forces.
TN: Thank you,Dr. Ivanov, for your insights into this complex situation.It’s clear that the lessons from Syria have broader implications for state stability worldwide.
AI: Thank you for having me. The situation in syria is indeed a crucial study for understanding modern geopolitical challenges.