The undersecretary for security: “The antagonism between Isis-Khorasan and Al Qaeda can translate into actions of force not only in Afghanistan”
“With the attack on the Twin Towers, everything changed: the reality of terrorism and its perception, but also our daily life. It was a surprising but not unexpected action, because the anti-American fire of jihadist extremism had been brewing for some time and had already materialized. Just like now the dissolution of the Afghan government system in the face of the Taliban: the fall of Kabul is the result of a faster-than-expected but not unpredictable advance. We must treasure mistakes, also interpretative, committed in the past and not repeat them today, to better face the threat ».
Twenty years after 11 September 2001 and those images that shocked the whole world Franco Gabrielli, former police chief and now undersecretary with responsibility for the security of the Republic, he talks about how the new international emergency triggered by the Afghan crisis can be dealt with. And not only.
Does the victory of the Taliban increase the risk of new attacks on the West?
“Of course, it is even trivial to say it. The defeat of an army trained and backed by Westerners by bands judged to be little more than pickers can trigger an emulation effect, to convey the message that it is not only possible to resist but also to punish a civilization considered an enemy. It happened twenty years ago when the terrorists showed that they could hit the United States on their territory and with their means, it can happen anywhere today ».
So are we under attack again?
“We remain under a threat that has never ceased, it is a mistake to evaluate it on the basis of the events that affect us most closely, such as the attacks of 2004-2005 in Spain and Great Britain, or of 2015-2016 in France and Belgium. Those are external manifestations, the danger remains even when nothing happens. The threat is immanent, and the risk of it becoming imminent in a situation like the present one increases ».
Have particular alarms arrived from the Italian and foreign secret services?
“Not that they concern our country in particular. On the other hand, there has been an increase in reports of risk in Afghanistan and in general against US targets ».
What are you most worried about the Afghan situation?
«The confusion and uncertainty, which even the Taliban have difficulty managing. It is no coincidence that they struggled to form the government, starting with the crucial choice of who will direct the intelligence ”.
The names called to the government do not bode well …
«It is a composition that currently sanctions the victory of the military wing and the presence in key posts – Prime Minister, Interior and Defense – of people even wanted internationally as terrorists. It is not a good sign or an opening towards the West, like the absence of civil society or female personalities. And now the ban on women from practicing sports that “expose their bodies”. There remains the contrast between the more traditionalist and the less orthodox soul, which must be considered together with the influence of the self-styled Islamic State in the Khorasan region, which seems to represent the greatest danger, and the risks deriving from other situations ».
For instance?
“The antagonism between Isis-Khorasan, which opposes the Taliban, and Al Qaeda which instead supports them, can translate into new actions of force that can manifest themselves not only in that territory”.
What can be done?
«In such a magmatic framework, it is clear that the number of subjects to be placed around the same table must be widened as much as possible, in order to involve them in a possible solution. There is no alternative, as President Draghi has hinted when aiming for a G20 over Afghanistan, because the G7 is not enough. It is complicated because there are different and sometimes opposing interests; just think of the involvement of China and Russia, Pakistan and India, Iran and the United States. But it is a bottleneck that is being followed with courage ».
Does this mean that you are also in favor of dialogue with the Taliban?
“Yes, but under certain conditions. What is happening confirms the need to proceed with caution, drawing judgments from facts rather than from prejudices or wishes. By concretely verifying, for example, the willingness to respect fundamental rights. Considering the Taliban different from twenty years ago can be a gamble, but seeing them always the same, as if nothing had changed, is shortsighted. It is necessary to understand well who is in front of you and then draw the consequences ».
Could there be new wars among the consequences?
«They are not desirable, because it is true that democracy is not exported by force. However, denying that rights and freedoms can be defended even by force would mean denying the help received from the allied armies in the war of liberation from which our Republic was born ».
However, there remains the problem of going to fight in the house of others.
“It is a delicate and complex issue, but the use of force is also inherent in peace missions. The problem is how it is exercised, and Italy’s management of its missions abroad is perhaps one of the reasons why we have not, up to now, become the target of jihadist terrorism, together with the prevention exercised by our security apparatuses, to over 600 preventive expulsions from 2015 to today and other measures adopted “.
Do we need greater European leadership?
“Sure, but that’s a question mark too. We rightly speak of a European army, but to do what? To go where? A sharing of objectives and strategies would be needed, while it seems to me that even on the reception of Afghan refugees, a topic on which there should be little to discuss, there are more elements of division than of sharing ».
Speaking of reception, the Afghan crisis and the increase in arrivals have rekindled the controversy over immigration, even within the government, with Salvini and the Lega attacking Minister Lamorgese, also evoking the risk of terrorism. What do you think?
“The two opposite theses, to support or exclude a priori that the arrival of foreigners leads to an increase in the risk of terrorism, are both without foundation. There is no strategy that makes immigration a vehicle for attacks in the West, so much so that the latest attacks were almost always carried out by people already present in the affected countries, if not by citizens of those countries; but it is also true that the bomber who killed three people in Nice last year had landed on Lampedusa. We must keep our guard very high, without generalizations or underestimations. After that, other arguments should be made on immigration, starting with integration, on which I will not enter now ».
You strongly wanted the new National Cybersecurity Agency, which is taking its first steps. Can cybercrime also be used by terrorists?
«In theory, yes, maybe it will happen, but for now most of the illegal activities are the work of common crime of various kinds; around forty gangs have been identified globally hacking criminal, from which a myriad of medium and small-scale cabotage activities derive. Terrorism and organized crime have not yet taken hold in this sector, where instead there are activities of sovereign states for issues relating to espionage, acquisition of intellectual property, economic and industrial interests ».
But there are also issues that closely affect the lives of citizens, as seen with the attack on the server that managed the health services of the Lazio Region.
“In that case there was a worrying exfiltration of data, but behind which there seems to be nothing particularly alarming. However, it is clear that the digitization of services, and therefore of our daily life, will be ever greater; this will have great efficiency gains, but will make our personal data more vulnerable. We need to gear up for resilience and we are doing it, albeit with some delay. We need to make the structures safer, but we also need a change of mentality, I would say cultural, on the part of the citizens-users ”.
September 9, 2021 (change September 9, 2021 | 07:24 am)
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