There are 115 days left until the opening of the polls in the 25th Knesset elections. In terms of Israeli politics, this is an eternity. Everything can still change, but the “Panels Politics” survey, led by Menachem Lazar, for “Maariv-Weekend”, which is published here – gives toBenjamin NetanyahuLikud candidate for prime minister, good reason to smile: The bloc he heads reaches 61 seats.
This political drama is a direct result of the decline of two parties in the current coalition bloc below the blocking percentage – right, led Ayelet ShakedAnd Meretz, headed Nitzan Horowitz. According to the poll, if the Knesset elections had taken place today – the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu would have received 36 seats – a strengthening of 2 seats compared to the previous poll. Yesh Atid, also led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is on the rise – 23 seats compared to 22 in the previous poll.
The third largest party is the religious Zionism of Bezalel Smutrich and Ben Gvir, Which maintains a double-digit figure of 10 seats. Fourth in size is blue and white headed Bnei Gantz, Which has been showing stability for some time with 9 seats. The two ultra-Orthodox parties also maintain stability: Shas, led Aryeh DeriWith 8 seats, and Torah Judaism, which recently made votes that is not in anyone’s pocket, with 7 seats.
Below the picture are three parties with 6 seats: Labor, led Merav MichaeliThe joint list, headed Ayman OdehAnd Yisrael Beiteinu, headed Avigdor Lieberman, Which is actually strengthened in the current poll in the Mandate. New hope, led Gideon SaarWhich shuffled for a while around the blocking percentage, stands for the second week in a row on 5 seats.
The drama takes place at the bottom. RAAM, headed Mansour AbbasAlthough it maintains stability with 4 seats, it is in dangerous proximity to the red line. However, below the blocking percentage, two parties from the current coalition bloc are falling: to the right, led by Ayelet ShakedAnd Meretz, headed Nitzan Horowitz. In a previous poll, conducted after Bennett announced his retirement and transferring the reins of right-wing leadership to Shaked, the party received four seats. This time it records a disappointing figure for it, only 2.6%, and a booklet for Meretz, led by Nitzan Horowitz, which fails to recover from the crisis that befalls it and receives only 2.1%, compared to 2.2% in the previous survey.
Ayelet Shaked (Photo: Yonatan Zindel Flash 90)
Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz (Photo: Tamir Bergig)This means that Gush Lapid will drop to 53 seats in the current poll, compared with 55 in the previous poll, while Gush Netanyahu will climb from 59 seats to 61, which will allow him to form a full-fledged right-wing government. In the middle remains the joint list with 6 seats. The changes in the distribution of seats compared to the previous survey are mainly due to the fact that the votes are divided without the right and Meretz, and as a result of the transition of right-wing voters to the Likud on the one hand and the future on the other.
The survey included 711 respondents, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, 614 Jews and 97 Arabs. Data collection is done through the Panel4All web panel. The survey was conducted on July 6-7, 2022. Maximum sampling error: 4.2%.