2024-03-27 22:08:39
The latest study shows that fertility rates in almost all countries will be too low to maintain population levels by the end of the century, and that most of the world’s live births will be from poorer countries.
The study, published in The Lancet, predicts that 155 of 204 countries and territories worldwide, 76%, will have fertility rates below population replacement levels by 2050. By 2100, this is expected to rise to 198, 97%. According to researchers’ estimates.
Researcher Stein-Emil Folset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle explained in a statement that this trend will lead to dividing the world between a “baby boom” and a “baby bust,” and that the boom will be concentrated in low-income countries that are most vulnerable to economic and political instability.
The projections are based on surveys, censuses and other data sources collected from 1950 to 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factors study.
Researchers said that more than three-quarters of live births will be in low- and middle-income countries by the end of the century, and more than half of them will be in sub-Saharan Africa.
The data shows that the global fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, has fallen from about 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
By 2021, 110 countries and territories, or 54%, had rates below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The study highlights a particularly worrying trend for countries such as South Korea and Serbia, where the fertility rate is less than 1.1 children per woman, exposing them to challenges associated with a shrinking workforce.
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2024-03-27 22:08:39