2023-12-22 12:15:24
Confebask forecasts a growth of the Basque economy of around 1.6% for 2024, although this forecast is subject to the existence of numerous risks, such that depending on how they evolve, the final growth could oscillate between 1.1% and 2.1%, as explained today by the employers’ association in its traditional end-of-year macroeconomic analysis. The president of the organization, Tamara Yagüe, has indicated that the growth of the Basque economy will be very flat during the first months of next year and, as the year progresses, it will achieve greater dynamism. Job creation, yes, will be somewhat more modest; specifically, about 13,000 new members of Social Security, 2,000 less than in the current year. Despite this, Yagüe clarified, Euskadi will maintain the bar of one million workers.
By sectors, in 2024, Construction and Services will remain in similar terms to those of this year that ends, and Industry will show the weakest growth, although it will perform better than in 2023 due to a progressive dynamization of the European economy and the global trade.
This being the case, and if these estimates are met, the unemployment rate will drop in Euskadi to 7%, one point less than expected at the end of 2023, and slightly above the European average.
Work expenses
As for what worries Basque companies the most for this coming year, and based on the surveys carried out periodically by our organizations -Adegi, Cebek and Sea-, the strong growth in labor costs continues, problems in finding qualified personnel (the factor of concern that is growing the most), the reduction of profitability, and the difficulty of access and the cost of bank financing, the second factor of concern that is growing the most in our surveys.
In this way, 2024 is full of challenges. Among the challenges that companies face, the president of Confebask cited those of managing a scenario of low economic growth and high interest rates, with inflation still high. Likewise, she explained, it is also an important challenge to undertake the investments that are needed to join the transitions underway and take advantage of the opportunities offered by European funds in a context of more expensive financing.
As for 2023, we are ending a year in which Confebask estimates that the Basque Country will grow by 1.6%, a figure that is in line with what was forecast a year ago, and which has been “burdened by the impact of inflation, the increase in interest rates, the weakness of the main clients of the Basque economy and the low growth of world trade.
Despite everything, Yagüe has agreed, this year Euskadi will close with some 15,000 more Social Security affiliates, surpassing the barrier of one million jobs, and with an unemployment rate of 8%, with 3,000 fewer unemployed in Lanbide. By sectors, in 2023 Construction and Services present the best evolution, while Industry has experienced a significant slowdown, which has led to growth for the whole year close to 0%.
As far as exports are concerned, the Basque foreign sector has shown declines since the middle of the year, although its surplus improves as the energy bill moderates.
Equilibrium
Finally, as Yagüe, accompanied by the general director of Confebask, Eduardo Aretxaga and the head of economics, Pablo Martín, recalled, «2024 will continue to be a year with significant risks. The evolution of inflation and interest rates, the new fiscal discipline framework approved in Europe, and the evolution of war crises in Europe and the Middle East will stand out.
On the business side, he said, efficient management capable of generating sufficient resources to invest and be able to keep pace with the ongoing transitions will be a priority. The president of Confebask has assured that “in fact, we will have to find the balance point to see how we combine the need to make investments that allow us to continue in the market and, likewise, undertake the transitions underway with declining business profitability.” ».
Not a euro
“In that sense,” he added, “and as we said last week, closer and more specialized management of the Next Generation funds from Euskadi could give a definitive boost to the transformation of our productive fabric.” “The calendar is moving forward and we cannot afford to lose a euro of investment in this task,” he insisted.
Tamara Yagüe concluded her speech by highlighting “the contribution of Basque companies to collective well-being, through the investments we generate, the jobs we create and the taxes we pay.” And to say very loudly that we are very proud of our contribution to Basque society.
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