Peru celebrates two months this Tuesday plunged into incessant protests that demand the resignation of President Dina Boluartea mobilization that his government has violently and ineffectively repressed to restore stability and social peace.
In the demonstrations, which broke out on December 7 with the dismissal of former left-wing president Pedro Castillo and which have already left 48 dead and dozens injured, the change in Congress, deeply discredited, is also being demanded.
The protest is carried out mainly by citizens of indigenous origin from the impoverished Andean south who call for general elections as soon as possible and not wait until 2024, as agreed in Congress.
Between roadblocks, economic paralysis and a state of emergency in nine of the country’s 25 regions, the Presidency and Parliament seem incapable of reaching consensus.
Last Friday the legislators decided to freeze any debate until August to advance the elections, burying the possibility of renewing authorities this year.
Without clear signs of a solution, three analysts elucidate possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: Resignation
The presidential resignation, contemplated in the Constitution, would precipitate the head of Congress to temporarily assume command of the country with the mission of calling elections, although without a precise term.
“The only (scenario) that exists is the departure of President Boluarte,” says Paula Távara, a political scientist and professor at the Catholic University, alleging a lack of “real will” on the part of Parliament to advance the elections.
Congress has left “the exit scenarios in the hands of the Executive”, adds the expert, who nevertheless acknowledges that resignation is “highly unlikely.”
Boluarte has stressed that resigning “is not at stake” as he maintains that it would be giving in to “political blackmail.”
For Távara, another reason is the fear of facing justice and “assuming the consequences” of those killed in the protests.
Resigning would also go against the interests of Boluarte and the right-wing parties in Congress that supported his appointment and are “playing against the wall,” according to political scientist Patricia Paniagua.
“There is a clear alignment of a strategy” between the initiatives of both powers, which for now maintain their positions until 2026 -when Castillo’s term should end-, says the academic.
Scenario 2: removal
The removal or presidential “vacancy”, a power of Congress regulated in the Constitution, unseated three presidents Peruvians in this century: Alberto Fujimori (2000), Martín Vizcarra (2020) and Pedro Castillo (2022).
That Boluarte is the next to be dismissed on the initiative of leftist parties is a persistent noise in Congress, although it requires the votes of two-thirds of parliament (87 of 130 legislators).
“I see it as very difficult because that would also speed up Congress having to leave,” estimates Alonso Cárdenas, professor of Political Science at the Antonio Ruiz de Montoya University.
“Given the political immaturity” of the ruling class, both the vacancy and the resignation are “very unlikely,” he adds.
“This scenario appears somewhat confusing, since there are no votes, but we should believe that it will be discussed” soon, says Paniagua.
Scenario 3: social outbreak
The possibility that the growing indignation of some dissatisfied sectors could lead to a social outbreak, in the style of Chile in 2019 or Guatemala in 2020, is also not ruled out.
“With a more heated spirit and greater frustration because there is no response to their claims, and a greater organization, it becomes possible for the mobilization to be more acute,” warns Távara.
A worsening of the conflict could force the president and Congress to accept any model of electoral advancement, but “at a very high costsays the political scientist.
“Unfortunately this week of no decision has brought us closer to this scenario,” he adds.
Scenario 4: Boluarte until 2026
That Boluarte and Congress complete their mandate until 2026 is also feasible, especially given the wear and tear of 60 days of mobilizations on the protesters and on Peruvian society in general.
Paniagua believes that the fatigue of the mobilized citizens is contemplated by the government.
“The response from the street is energetic, it is firm (…) but how sustainable is that in the medium or long term?”, he questions.
Paniagua adds that Boluarte’s silence after Congress slammed the debate to advance the elections indicates that “it is agreeing” to that decision and that both powers will continue “with their backs to what is happening on the street.”
Távara, for her part, argues that this scenario could improve if the government makes “a very serious act of contrition,” which includes a change of cabinet, sanctioning those responsible for the deaths, and opening dialogue with the dissatisfied.
Cárdenas, by contrast, sees it as more likely that Boluarte will assume the position that “nothing happened here” and let the mobilization die out without making any concessions.
Fuente: AFP
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