2023-12-16 07:00:48
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France insoumise, in Rennes, December 14, 2023. GUILLAUME SOUVANT/AFP
What we measure as voting intentions six months before the European election is of course very volatile and does not take into account the effects that the electoral campaign will produce. However, the interest lies in the evolution of the results since June and in their intersection with the perception of the conflict in the Middle East. From this point of view, the low level of the list of La France insoumise (LFI) (7.5%, – 1 point), the dynamics of the National Rally (RN) (28%, + 4 points) and the massive disapproval Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s positions constitute a notable and challenging fact, even if the conflict obviously does not explain everything.
The survey thus reveals the very great singularity of LFI voters, including within the space of the left, and how the events of October 7, the date of the Hamas attack against Israel, added an additional divide to the within a New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes) already greatly weakened.
The specificity of the positions taken by the different political families appears immediately on a simple indicator, that of sympathy, antipathy or indifference towards the Israelis, the Palestinians, Hamas and the Benyamin government. Netanyahu. Among the French, the balance tilts in favor of the Israelis: 53% sympathy, 18% antipathy, against 45% and 25% regarding the Palestinians. In all political categories, sympathy towards the Israelis is in the majority… except among supporters of La France insoumise, where it falls to only 41%.
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On the other hand, 72% of these same supporters feel sympathy for the Palestinians, a figure not found in any other political family. Certainly, the left-right divide works on this indicator, with environmentalist and socialist sympathizers feeling a little more sympathy towards the Palestinians than the Israelis. But what is striking is that among them, the difference in sympathy between these two peoples is only a few points while it is massive within La France insoumise (31 points difference). Useful reminder: we are talking about the perception of the people, not the Israeli government. There is therefore undoubtedly a much greater hostility towards Israelis among LFI sympathizers than in the entire population and than within the left.
Reversal of hierarchy of responsibilities
The second point to note is that Hamas generates 6% sympathy among the French (i.e. a little more than 3 million people…) and 72% antipathy but that this rate rises to 14% among supporters of La France insoumise – and 13% among those of the Communist Party (PCF). The refusal to label it a terrorist organization and the desire to present it as a resistance movement is clearly having its effects. In fact, to the question “Is Hamas a terrorist organization? »78% of French people answer yes and 6% no.
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