The cross : You speak of a transition to a “private war” in Ukraine, what is it?
Michel Goya : There are two types of offensive operations. Until now, we could speak of a conquest operation, but today we would have to take out a magnifying glass to observe the evolutions on a map. A month ago, when Russia announced a “operational pause” in his invasion of Ukraine, attacks and artillery fire were greatly reduced. Surely due to a lack of resources, land operations have given way to raids and strikes that affect enemy territory in depth.
This is what Ukraine did in Crimea, more than 200 kilometers from its lines. In general, we can see it well in recent press releases: we hardly speak of fights anymore, but of blows. This refers to the French strategy during the war in Indochina, described as “war of corsairs” to remain romantic. Finally, we no longer seek to conquer land but rather to exist, the time to replenish our stocks and transform our army. It can also be called a “war of attrition”, or a “small war”.
The cross : Is the balance of power between the two camps balanced for this type of offensive?
M. G. : A slight trend can be identified in favor of Ukraine. The Russians are totally dependent on their artillery but seem to have exhausted a certain amount of it, to the point of using anti-aircraft missiles for ground strikes. Ukraine has an advantage here, thanks to Western artillery, which is more powerful and more precise. They can thus strike as far as Russian shell depots. Not to mention the information provided by the United States in particular.
The latest strikes in Crimea have shown a great qualitative leap, necessarily involving new means. But a profound difference remains, namely the political constraints on the Ukrainian side. Unlike Russia, the country cannot afford to fire on Russian soil with impunity, at the risk of provoking an escalation and leading to a declaration of war by Moscow.
The cross : Could this war of attrition be spread over the long term?
M. G. : This strategy is rarely decisive in a conflict, unless the destruction is very significant and long-lasting. Relentlessness can sometimes pay off, this is particularly what happened on Serpents’ Island, where the Ukrainians managed to force the Russians to retreat. But there is little chance that this will be enough to bend Moscow.
In general, it is more of a waiting strategy, which will unlock when one of the two armies has modified the balance of power and overtaken the adversary. For this, it is first necessary to form new combat units and study feedback. And that usually takes several months.