The sharp economic recovery after the pandemic 2020 has exposed serious problems in global logistics. Both maritime transport and railways were struggling to meet the growing demand of shippers in 2021. As a result, in the second half of the year, the situation in ports and at border crossings was increasingly characterized as a collapse.
In Russia, on the railroad, the consequence of the reduction in traffic in 2020 was the optimization of personnel and the fleet of wagons in good condition. A sharp increase in traffic in 2021 led to a deficit, as expected. The rolling stock, which had previously been removed from transportation and had not undergone timely repairs, could not be promptly returned to the network, since the car repair capacity in 2020 was also “optimized”. The continuing increase in transit container traffic in 2021 caused a shortage of fitting platforms, a sharp increase in demand for new rolling stock and, as a result, an increase in purchase prices for wagons and operator rates.
Growing demand for sea freight in 2021 has pushed freight rates to historic highs. For example, the container segment, having started the year with $ 20,000 per day, grew continuously until in October rates reached $ 78,000 per day, which is seven times higher than the historical average, as noted in the November review of VTB Capital. Only in November, for the first time in a year, they showed a decrease of 1% month-on-month.
In 2020–2021 the WCI Drewry composite index, which reflects the cost of container shipping, has grown steadily. At the beginning of 2020, its value was less than $ 2,000 per FEU (the equivalent of a 40-foot container), in the first half of 2021 it fluctuated between $ 4,500 and $ 5,500 per FEU, and by the end of September 2021 the index had already exceeded $ 10,000 per FEU. On some routes, WCI Drewry reached $ 15,000-17,000 per FEU. Later, there was some correction, since mid-November the index has stabilized around $ 9100-9200 per FEU.
But the main problems in the transport industry lie not in the area of demand or price conditions, but primarily in the area of limited infrastructure capacities.
In 2021, rail transportation in Russia again ran up against the throughput of the Eastern range (BAM and Transsib) and access roads to ports (primarily to the Far Eastern and Black Sea ports). A negative factor was the untimely performance of infrastructure work, which was mainly related to the removal of bottlenecks in the network. The growth in container handling in ports and an increase in coal shipments have led to traffic jams at the approaches to ports and problems with the export of coastal cargo to the northern ports of the Far East. Major port congestions occurred in the fall of 2021 amid coronavirus restrictions in China.
Despite all the difficulties, rail freight traffic has already fully recovered. At the end of January – November 2021, the loading on the Russian Railways network is 3.3% higher than in the same period of 2020, and by 0.3% more than in the 11 months of the pre-pandemic 2019 – 1.17 trillion tons Transshipment in ports in 2021 (11 months – 763.7 million tons) is also in positive territory, it is 1.7% higher than in 11 months of 2020.
Experts and market participants predict that loading on the Russian Railways network in 2021 may exceed the 2019 figure, which will be facilitated by a favorable situation on the external market for the main export goods (primarily coal). As the first deputy general director of Russian Railways Vadim Mikhailov said at a December briefing, the monopoly expects an increase in cargo turnover in 2021 by 3.7%.
In 2022, first of all, an increase in the loading and transshipment of the main export cargo of the fuel and energy complex (oil, oil products, coal) is expected due to the preservation of a favorable price environment, said Alexander Polygalov, Managing Director of the Otkritie Research transport sector. also depend on the OPEC + agreements during 2022. The growth of container traffic by rail and the transshipment of containers in ports will continue due to the departure of some cargo for rail transit due to the cost of freight, which, according to Polygalov’s estimates, will remain high in 2022. In addition, the growth of containerization of traffic in Russia will have a positive effect, which will lead to an increase in container handling in ports, the expert explained. At the same time, VTB Capital analysts note that the rates for the transportation of containers by sea will remain high in 2022.
IPEM Deputy General Director Vladimir Savchuk predicts that in 2022 the shortage of fitting platforms will decrease with a simultaneous stabilization of rates for them. In addition, the transportation of coal products for export will remain in demand, he said. That is, coal will actually continue to compete with containers and other cargo for the scarce capacity of the railways, Savchuk explained.
The Managing Director of the NRA Rating Service Sergei Grishunin believes that, in general, the achievement of the dock level in the transport industry should be expected by 2023–2024, but only if the intensity of the coronavirus pandemic decreases and there are no other global shocks.
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