The exponent of democratic administrations says that «no one is ever the father of chaos. But the information was not provided in a timely manner to the White House “
Five days before the fall of Kabul, intelligence estimates said it would take 30 or maybe 90 days. Was there an intelligence failure or did President Joe Biden and his team underestimate the predictions?
“When chaos breaks out, there are always mutual accusations – says Leon Panetta, former head of the CIA and then Secretary of Defense under Obama -. No one is the father of chaos, while everyone wants to be the father of success. There was a failure to anticipate and deliver intelligence by both military and civilian services: they did not understand how quickly the Taliban were moving and how the Afghan government was on the verge of collapse. The initial intelligence said 8-9 months, then it was thought that the fall could take place in the autumn … ”
The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal cite sources that intelligence, including the CIA, began providing increasingly pessimistic forecasts of an imminent military collapse in July, and that these messages were not received. by Biden. But administration sources reply that none of those reports indicated an imminent fall of Kabul or was “high confidence” (the highest level of certainty).
“I’m not sure about the terms used, but I don’t think accurate information was provided quickly enough. But part of the problem is that by withdrawing our troops, we have lost the very sources that provided us with intelligence on the ground. There is no doubt that the release could have been better planned, for example by keeping a larger presence until the end. Secondly, it did not take a genius to understand the situation: my feeling is that, once the military withdrawal was decided, everyone focused on the withdrawal, also cutting off the air support to the Afghan army: it was clear that the local military they did not have the necessary support to counter the Taliban, who took advantage of it. The Taliban had a good strategy: on the one hand they pretended to negotiate in Doha and under Trump they achieved the goal of having American troops withdrawn by 1 May. Then they started planning the operation and pre-positioned weapons in Afghanistan, intimidating and corrupting the Afghan military and in a few days conquering a dozen provincial capitals. They had a plan and intelligence that we didn’t have. ‘
Are there countries that are helping them in the strategy?
“I have no doubt that Pakistan helped them.”
It seems that for months, intelligence officials have continued to make comparisons between the Afghan and South Vietnamese armies. It took two years for the latter to collapse after the US withdrawal. Optimists thought the Afghans could last two years.
“I think it is always dangerous to make historical comparisons, because they are based on different circumstances.”
You were the head of the CIA during the operation that killed Osama Bin Laden.
If US intelligence has failed to predict the fall of Kabul, how can it anticipate terrorist threats in the future?
“Our ability to conduct Bin Laden’s operation depended on excellent intelligence and our ability to conduct effective military operations not only in Afghanistan but also then in Pakistan. The fight against terrorism in this country has historically been based on good sources on the ground: Afghans and Americans locating targets, our special forces able to take helicopters and chase the target, counting on collaboration with the Afghans. The problem with the Taliban is that those capabilities are gone. It will be much more difficult to get them to hit Al Qaeda or to intervene in the country with helicopters or drones. It will be more complicated to use these resources from outside Afghanistan, it will take longer and the targets disappear very quickly. Finally, we have no Afghan partners to assist us. It will therefore be more difficult to prevent these terrorist groups from reforming or from developing plans that could turn into attacks abroad. We will pay a price: Afghanistan could become a safe sanctuary for terrorists ».
Biden argues that remote missions “over the horizon” will be possible. What do they consist of?
“My son is on the Armed Forces Commission in Congress and they have not yet received a briefing on the implementation of that plan. They have not yet been able to find nearby bases and develop it ».
You made a comparison between Kabul and the Bay of Pigs.
“I was referring to the way Kennedy handled the disastrous attempt to invade Cuba: a plan conceived by the CIA that turned into a disaster. President Kennedy deserves credit for not blaming the CIA or the military when he spoke to the nation. He took full responsibility for what had happened. And it was a great example of how presidents should handle decisions and mistakes. “
August 18, 2021 (change August 18, 2021 | 22:48)
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