2023-12-20 10:40:02
Roman Svitan. Still from video
The main reason why the Ukrainian Defense Forces have not achieved significant success in liberating the occupied territories in 2023 is the lack of long-range weapons and aviation. Ukrainian defenders, by and large, had to be content with weapons whose range did not exceed 25 kilometers – it was precisely these distances that they were able to advance.
But in 2024 the situation may change dramatically. With a high degree of probability, we can expect that Ukraine will receive both long-range systems and aviation. And then “everything will be faster and more fun,” and by an order of magnitude. The rate of advance of the Defense Forces will accelerate tenfold and Ukrainian losses will be reduced tenfold.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by pilot-instructor, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan.
– Do you admit that after the end of the so-called presidential elections in Russia, which will be held in March 2024, there may be a significant intensification of mobilization there?
– This can be done without problems, but the question of feasibility arises. If Russia sees a need for this, they will turn on the mobilization mechanism to the fullest, but for now there is absolutely no need for this.
The fact is that the Russians will not plan offensive actions – they do not have such a mechanism in any direction. Now their main problem is how to defend this front from us.
And for defense, at the moment, they have enough of the number of military personnel who already come to them at recruiting centers and go on combat duty, so to speak. They have enough such resources.
Today they do not need mobilization. And then we’ll watch.
– Could Putin make other unpopular decisions after these “elections”?
– Hardly. What will he do now? It will take him five years to rebuild his troops, his army. And this mainly depends on the economy, on the launch of military production. He has no problems with personnel, but he has big problems with equipment.
Therefore, Putin may decide to put the economy under martial law. Let’s just say, in a mobilization position. In five years, he needs to restore the number of tanks, guns, and so on lost in the war against Ukraine.
Moreover, I would not say that this kind of action is unpopular in Russia. On the contrary, it will give a certain impetus to domestic production.
That is why we must under no circumstances stop the fighting, so as not to give Putin the opportunity to recover. If you give him the opportunity to accumulate strength and recover, then in 3-5 years he will move on. It’s not a fact that to Ukraine. One of his tasks is to reach the Balkans, and he can only get there through Ukraine, through Transnistria.
– By the way, what about the group of Russian troops in Transnistria? As far as I know, it is still small. Do you admit that it could be strengthened in some way?
– No, they have nothing to strengthen it with. I think this is the mode in which she will wait for her release. Most likely, we will not allow the Russians to recover and attack Odessa and Transnistria again. We won’t give it.
If the government of Moldova makes a decision, the issue with Transnistria will be resolved. We have this opportunity; for this we only need the consent of the Moldovan side.
– The German publication Welt stated that, judging by Ukraine’s requests for weapons and equipment from the United States, our army is preparing for a counter-offensive in 2024. Moreover, it must be large-scale. Aviation will occupy an important place in support, and the starting point for the application of forces will be a bridgehead on the left bank. Do such assessments have any right to life?
– Yes, this is one of the main directions today. The optimal option for combat operations is precisely with aviation support. And we can have this support. Without aviation there is no point in moving forward. And as soon as aviation arrives, everything will be more fun.
Why didn’t we succeed in 2023? Only because we did not have long-range weapons. They didn’t give us missiles, they didn’t give us aviation. This means that we could only advance to the combat radius of the weapons we had. This is artillery, with a radius of 15-25 kilometers. This is the distance we have advanced.
And we can move further only with the help of a sufficient amount of aviation. We will resolve these issues in 2024. I think they will give us aviation, and with it everything will be faster and more fun – by an order of magnitude. The speed will be ten times higher and the losses will be ten times lower.
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