2023-11-22 08:59:25
According to a study, a sugar tax on soft drinks would save up to 16 billion euros in Germany alone over the next two decades and prevent numerous illnesses. This is the conclusion drawn by researchers from the Technical University of Munich and the British University of Liverpool.
“A soft drinks tax in Germany would have clear positive effects,” they write in the trade magazine „PLOS Medicine“. In all simulated variants, less sugar would be consumed and illnesses would be less common. “In this way, economic costs could be reduced and the burden on the health system could be relieved.”
The World Health Organization recommends a special tax of at least 20 percent on sugary drinks in order to reduce the population’s sugar consumption and its health consequences. Over a hundred countries have already introduced various types of sugar taxes. “The introduction of a sugar tax is effective and is recommended for German politics,” explained Michael Stolpe from the Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in Kiel about the current results. “Advertising bans, such as those introduced for cigarettes, could also help reduce sugar consumption.”
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Falk Schwendicke from the Charité in Berlin also believes that taxing sugar-sweetened drinks makes a lot of sense from a health policy and economic perspective. “The calculated cost savings and health gains are considerable.” Particularly population groups that are otherwise difficult to reach could have their behavior positively influenced.
In Great Britain, the so-called “Soft Drinks Industry Levy” has existed since 2018, a graduated tax that manufacturers of sugar-sweetened drinks have to pay. From five grams of sugar per 100 milliliters you have to pay 18 pence (the equivalent of 21 cents) per liter, from eight grams of sugar you have to pay 24 pence.
Instead, Germany is relying on a voluntary commitment from the beverage industry – studies have shown so far with moderate results. The study from Munich now shows that the desired effect of a tax would actually occur in this country and that the risk of obesity and illness would decrease.
The greatest effect is seen in middle-aged men
However, it makes a difference whether the tax is aimed at generally reducing soft drink consumption or bringing about recipe changes. According to international studies, if the tax is due regardless of the sugar content, this will primarily lead to a reduced demand for soft drinks.
However, if the tax is based on the amount of sugar, the recipes of the drinks would also be changed. “According to the simulation, with a flat-rate 20 percent surcharge on soft drink prices, sugar consumption per day and person would decrease by one gram,” said the researchers, describing the potential effects in Germany.
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According to estimates, in the group of men between 30 and 49 years old it would be just under three grams per day. “An even greater impact would be a 30 percent reduction in sugar in recipes, as was recorded in Great Britain after the introduction of the graduated manufacturer levy,” explained the team of experts.
This would reduce per capita consumption in Germany by 2.3 grams per day, and by 6.1 grams for 30 to 49-year-old men. According to the team’s calculations, there would be significantly fewer cases of obesity and obesity under both taxation options Cardiovascular diseases.
The expected effects are particularly large for type 2 diabetes: “According to our models, up to 244,100 people would develop type 2 diabetes later or not at all within the next 20 years,” explained the first author of the study, Karl Emmert -Fees.
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With a tax on sweetened drinks, fewer treatments would be necessary and the costs of sick days and incapacity to work would also fall. For the period 2023 to 2043, the team has calculated economic savings of around 16 billion euros with a staggered manufacturer levy, of which around 4 billion euros are in healthcare costs.
“With a 20 percent tax, the total would still be around 9.5 billion euros.” In addition, people under the age of 30 were not taken into account in the calculations because most of the modeled diseases occur primarily in the second half of life.
However, soft drink consumption is highest among teenagers, explained Emmert-Fees. “Accordingly, the average reduction in sugar consumption would be even more drastic and the positive health effect even greater if we took younger people into account.”
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Recently, a study presented in the journal “BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health” showed that the sugar tax in Great Britain has positive effects on the dental health of young people. Accordingly, the number of under-18s who had a tooth extracted due to tooth decay fell by twelve percent within two years after the tax was introduced in 2018.
For Sarah Forberger from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen, a sugar tax can only be a start. “No matter what tax is chosen, taxation could be a piece of the puzzle in combating obesity,” she tells the Science Media Center.
Although a reduction of 5 to 22 kilocalories per person per day could save high follow-up costs over a period of 20 years, it is not enough to influence the health consequences in a timely manner. “However, high sugar consumption and obesity are too complex to be effectively combated with taxation alone,” she says. In addition, increased education among children and young people would make sense, added Michael Stolpe from the IfW, who is head of the Global Health Economics project area and was not involved in the study himself. “Young people, particularly young men, consume sugary drinks to a much greater extent than older people.” Their long-term health therefore benefited most from measures to reduce sugar consumption.
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