If citizens do not take the third dose, it will be necessary to hypothesize to reduce the validity of the green passes to 9 months or 6 months: in fact, after 6 months the coverage guaranteed by vaccines is reduced, as shown by the ISS data. It will also be considered whether to continue giving the pass even after a quick swab
The squeeze on green pass it could be decided the first week of December, until then we must push on the campaign for the third dose and for those who have not yet decided to immunize.
The data that the ISS releases in the morning, making the numbers relating to the effectiveness of vaccines known for the first time, convince the government of the need to wait at least another two weeks before changing the rules for issuing the green certification.
If the citizens’ response is not adequate, it is necessary to reflect on the possibility to reduce the validity of the green pass. In fact, the scientists’ analysis starts from a precise consideration: After 6 months from the completion of the vaccination cycle, a sharp decrease in vaccination efficacy is observed in preventing diagnoses at all age groups.
Vaccine efficacy
The ISS analysts write: In general, on the whole population, vaccination efficacy goes from 76% in vaccinated with a full cycle within six months compared to unvaccinated, to 50% in vaccinated with a full cycle over six months compared to to the unvaccinated. In the case of severe disease, the difference between vaccinated with a full course for over and less than six months is smaller. In fact, a decrease in vaccination efficacy of about 10 percentage points is observed, since the efficacy for vaccinated with a complete cycle for less than six months is equal to 92% compared to unvaccinated, while it is equal to 82% for those who have been vaccinated with a full course for over six months compared to those who have not been vaccinated. For 12-39 year olds, the ISS estimates that the effectiveness drops from 80 to 59% for infections and from 95 to 82% against severe disease. But beware: the 12-39 unvaccinated who are infected are as many as 508 per 100,000 inhabitants, that is more than double the number of those who were immunized more than six months ago, and five times the number of those vaccinated for less than six months. And to demonstrate the effectiveness of the vaccine are hospitalizations: In this range there were 12 for those without immunization (respectively 18 times more than those vaccinated for less than six months, and 4 times for over 6 months). The same goes for the other age groups. For those aged between 40 and 59, the effectiveness goes from 72 to 42% for infections, and from 95 to 87.5% for severe disease. In the range between 60 and 79 years it goes from 72% to 40%, depending on whether the two doses have been taken for more or less than six months for diagnosis, from 92 to 78% for severe disease. For the over 80s, the drop in vaccination protection from 80 to 61% against infections, and from 89 to 80% against severe disease.
The newly infected
According to the bulletin 10.5% of the cases reported in the last two weeks of male sex and aged between 10 and 29 years, equal to the percentage of female subjects in the same age group. In total, in the period 25 October-7 November, 52.5% of reported Covid-19 cases were diagnosed in females. The percentage of cases detected in people over the age of 60 stable (23.4% versus 23.2% compared to the previous week). The median age of cases is slightly increasing, 43 years.
Young people
Experts highlight that in the age group between 12 and 39 years, the infected with two doses taken for less than six months are 98 against the 247 who have done it for over 6 months, the hospitalized 0.7 against 3, but none in any case ended up in resuscitation. From the very young it emerges, therefore, how the effectiveness of the vaccine decreases over time.
The waning
The decline in vaccination efficacy, defined waning, before and after six months from the date of administration, drops by 25.5 points, going from 75.5 to 50.2 for infections; for severe illness leading to hospitalization or intensive care it is reduced by only 9.7 points (from 91.8 to 82.1), and the protection remains in any case very high. The message from the Higher Institute of Health that accompanies these data is that the third dose must be taken, especially for the categories for which it is recommended now, because waning is already visible, while those who are vaccinated in a decisive manner compared to those who are not immunized remain protected.
He green pass
On Tuesday, the House must convert the latest green pass decree into law and the government could decide to pass it through a vote of confidence. One way to avoid tears in the majority in view of a review that could be started at the end of the month. There are two points to consider regarding green certification: the duration of 12 months from the last administration and release to those who are not vaccinated and undergo the test antigenico. In fact, it is necessary to verify if a year is not too long a time and evaluate if reduce its validity to six months as scientists ask or at least 9 months. And above all if – in the face of a new surge in daily infections – rapid swabs are actually reliable or if the high percentage of false negatives does not risk an uncontrolled spread of the virus. The choice will be made after having consulted the CTS, but only after having measured the progress of the vaccination campaign in view of the green light for the third dose for those over 40, which starts on December 1st.
November 14, 2021 (change November 14, 2021 | 07:10)
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