The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at a meeting on December 17 may raise the key rate by 100 basis points at once – up to 8.5% per annum, said during a press conference the chairman of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina.
“100 bp was discussed not only at this meeting. That fork (of the average key rate. – Ed.), Which we gave before the end of the year, yes, it also allows such an option, “she said, answering the question about the likelihood of an increase in the indicator at the next meeting with a” non-standard step “, including 100 bp
Along with the decision on the key rate, today the Central Bank presented an updated macroeconomic forecast. Among other things, the regulator raised the estimate of the average annual key rate at the end of 2021 from 5.5-5.8% to 5.7-5.8%. The Central Bank also downgraded the inflation forecast from 5.7-6.2% to 7.4-7.9%.
Today, the Central Bank increased its key rate by 75 bp at once. p. – up to 7.5% per annum – a record level since the end of July 2019.The regulator made such a decision against the background of the continuing acceleration of inflation, which reached 7.78% in annual terms by October 18. In addition, inflationary expectations of the population increased to a record 13.6% since November 2016.
In its press release today, the Central Bank signaled the possibility of a further increase in the key rate. According to the regulator, in 2022 inflation will decrease to 4-4.5% and only after that it will stabilize at the target level of 4%.
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