Why conquer everything at once, when it is possible to bite into smooth pieces. This looks tonight (Monday) Vladimir Putin’s eating formula. He did not (yet) order his army to cross the international border, and put an end to the existence of independent Ukraine. Instead he tonight tore down two provinces on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia through official recognition of their independence.
These districts, around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, are located in a region called Donbas, rich in coal and famous for heavy industry. In Donetsk there are 2.3 million people, on an area of 9,000 square kilometers, and in Luhansk a little less than a million and a half people over 8,000 square kilometers.
As early as eight years ago, Russia controlled these provinces a collection of separatist rebels, which it funds and equips. The rebels declared at the time the establishment of a “People’s Republic” in each of the two cities. Tonight, the President of the Russian Federation acknowledged this political illusion, which has no historical, political or moral basis.
The justification is that Ukraine is waging “genocide” against Russian speakers in its eastern regions. The Ukrainian army was expelled from these districts as early as 2014, and had no foothold in them. In recent days, the rebels, with the help of the Russian government and its media, have fueled false rumors of an impending Ukrainian attack on the republics. The rebels forced many thousands of Republicans to board a fleet of buses, and evacuate east, to the Russian city of Rostov.
It was quite clear that the complaints about “genocide”, the news of Ukrainian invasion and the mass evacuation of civilians were meant to prepare the ground for a dramatic move. It was not clear whether the expected move would be an invasion of Ukraine, or an actual annexation of the provinces to Russia. Attachment is currently the choice.
As in 2008
The ridiculous independence is nothing but a piece of paper. From now on Donetsk and Luhansk are part of everything for the Russian Federation. One of the rebel leaders even failed in his language, declaring annexation to Russia. This is unlikely to happen for the time being, in favor of the diplomatic pretense. It is permissible to assume that there will be several countries in the world that will recognize independence, some with the help of fees from the Russian Foreign Ministry.
We are free to make these assumptions, because all of this has already happened once, in 2008, after a brief war between Russia and Georgia. Even then, Putin, who was prime minister, complained about Georgia’s genocide against an ethnic minority in its territory, in a province called South Ossetia. The Russian army invaded, defeating the Georgians. Two weeks later, Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and also the independence of another Georgian region, Abkhazia. Not Russians live in those regions, but Caucasian ethnic minorities, with pro-Russian leanings.
Thirteen years later, South Ossetia and Abkhazia continue to be seemingly “independent”, over the spears of the Russian army. Although their formal rift from Georgia did not topple the Georgian state, it sent a clear message about Russia’s intentions and its willingness to go even further. The capital Tbilisi was then within the reach of the Russian tanks. As in Ukraine, in Georgia the message was sent against the background of the desire of this age-old country to join the NATO alliance. The intention did not materialize.
Who fired the first shot
The tearing of Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukraine is a very critical test for the Ukrainian government in the war of nerves that Russia is waging against it. This act is imprinted with a stamp of aggression under international law. Russia of course ceased to take into account international law when it invaded the Crimean peninsula, in 2014, and when it began the uprising in the Donbas.
Russian fighters in military exercise / Photo: Reuters, EyePress News
The Ukrainian government has so far maintained considerable restraint in the eastern regions. Its forces were ordered to contain fire, and to respond only when self-defense required a response. But the internal pressure on the government to respond to the recognition of the republics may be unbearable. There is also a danger that Ukrainian nationalists, who are militarily organized and well-armed, will try to act independently. It would be a gift to Putin, who could present it as an act of war that justifies an appropriate response.
For several weeks now, the United States and its allies in Europe have been warning of Russian deception within or along its borders, which will try to give the impression that Ukraine fired the first shot. What is happening in the eastern regions can be understood in this context.
It is possible, of course, or not of course, that Russia will be content for the time being in this course, because it ostensibly settles its concern about “genocide.” But the formula of “extermination of the people” it can apply to any region in Ukraine that has Russian speakers. Russian is spoken in the major cities of the East and the South. Putin had already liberated the Crimean peninsula in 2014 in the name of the need to save Russian speakers from the clutches of the “Ukrainian fascists.” He can do the same in Kharkiv and Odessa, the two most important cities of Ukraine after Kiev.
The question tonight continues to be yesterday’s question, and last week’s question, and last month’s question: what does Vladimir Putin want and when does he want it?