The meeting of political advisers of the “Normandy format” in Berlin ended inconclusively. The head of the Russian delegation, deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak, blamed Ukraine and the United States. According to him, Kiev is openly sabotaging the process, and this is in the interests of Western partners. However, the parties are ready to continue the dialogue. Kommersant FM political observer Dmitry Drize believes that even such negotiations are better than war.
Political advisers sat for almost nine hours, but they did not come to anything concrete, although they tried. As a result, they declared that the absence of a result is also a result, and dispersed. However, this is not a final break, and the mutual desire to continue consultations remains. And a new meeting should take place, however, it is not clear when.
Naturally, the question arises: what did they talk about for so long? They tried to find not even a compromise, but to draw up a final statement in order to put it on paper and then present to the public that, they say, they were not wasting travel expenses and each other’s precious time? But nothing was agreed upon. The stumbling block is known. Who are the participants in the conflict? Moscow believes that a civil war is underway, and Kiev should speak directly with the DPR-LPR.
However, he refuses, and Western partners do not want to force him to do so. The next question is: what’s next? Unclear. They wanted to convene a summit in the Normandy format.
But what’s the point? What to discuss if there is not even a hint of a solution? However, you can try to push the process from above, if it does not work from below.
The head of the Russian delegation, Dmitry Kozak, did not hide his irritation. Naturally, there remains another option – if the diplomats fail to agree, will the guns speak? Dmitry Nikolaevich said about this:
“Whether Ukraine will try to solve this militarily is difficult to guess. I don’t want to take the liberty of predicting her plans. Another thing is that the rhetoric is militaristic, military, so to speak, with the designation of some mythical plans “A”, “B”. If it is not possible to resolve this conflict in their understanding under the Minsk agreements by political means, they designate only points, the names of certain plans – plan “A”, plan “B”. What it is, no one knows.”
Still, I would like to rule out a military scenario, although it really seems very likely in such a situation. Nevertheless, if the Minsk agreements in their current form do not work, then something else needs to be invented. What exactly? For example, organize a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, or rely on the “shuttle diplomacy” of European leaders. But be that as it may, today there is more certainty than before.
Why? Because the authorities in Kiev say that the republics of Donbass cannot gain de facto independence by retaining their armed forces and remaining de jure within Ukraine. Not a single Ukrainian president will ever sign such a thing – he will simply be demolished by another Maidan. And you should not count on the help of Western partners, if only because they stand for the unity of Ukraine.
Another option is to pretend that the agreements are working, convene summits, organize meetings of advisers, agree on the texts of statements – and so on until the political and other conditions change. There are a great many options.
It is required to slightly change the formula of thinking, for example, that we are not enemies, but fraternal peoples, and we are not going to attack each other.
It takes time to understand all this. So let the advisers sit. In any case, this is better than war, and the solution will come, but with time.
Read the opinions of political observer Dmitry Drize – exclusively on the Kommersant FM Telegram channel.