2023-10-17 12:24:18
The Hamas commandos who killed and kidnapped civilians on October 7 carried with them a pamphlet written in Arabic. In four pages, he explains how to destroy individual Merkava tanks with minimal weapons Israelis. And this small detail among the material seized from the terrorists points to what war scenario Israel and the Palestinian militia are targeting: urban guerrilla warfare. It is the one that Spanish soldiers consulted by El Periódico de Cataluña, from Prensa Ibérica, agree in considering “the worst case scenario”.
In this black October, the first Israeli incursions with boots on the ground of Gaza have been made Egoz special operations units. They went in search of clues about the hostages captured by Hamas, and they returned without being rescued but with intelligence that confirms that prediction. Israel faces the dilemma of an offensive with numerous casualties, a result of war in buildings, sidewalks and rubble.
Of all the armed actors in the Middle East, Israel is the society most vulnerable to the effect of its own casualties. “But there is no alternative but to enter Gaza. Anything short of combat means Hamas survives, and it does not seem that Israel this time is willing to do that; and Hamas, for its part, is going to fight to the death…”, he estimates. FL, senior Marine Corps officer.
Feijóo sees the Government’s response to Israel’s complaint as “rude”
Therefore, immolations with hostages, the use of human shields, countless guerrilla ambushes and precision bombings to stop them are not ruled out. Trying to neutralize the 30,000 militants attributed to Hamas involves fighting in urban areas, and in this scenario Israel has overwhelming military superiority and air control in its favor, but the Islamist group has “the advantage of battlefield preparation”explains this source.
This preparation of the scene consists not only of the mythical network of tunnels, but also of “butrons connecting buildings with each other, and fortifications that in urban warfare turn each pile of rubble into a small castle,” explains the retired Major General. Jaime Íñiguez, former head of the Joint Special Operations Command of the Army and currently an advisor to NATO.
Shots through the windows
The pamphlet carried by the perpetrators of the October 7 attacks is a diptych. On the right, diagrams of an Israeli Merkava tank and its weak points: central rear, third wheel axle, turret neck… On the left page, the most common weapons to destroy it –Russian RPG grenade launcher and its Chinese versiontransportable on the shoulder – and instructions to direct the fire to two systems -Alox and Trophy– which the Merkavas have incorporated to deflect missiles or detonate hostile rockets prematurely with a shock wave.
“Advancing through cities with armored vehicles is very difficult, because they immediately block you,” explains Íñiguez, author of ‘The untold actions of the Spanish special operations units’ (Punto Didot). units that clear debris ahead, and snipers and grenade launchers do a lot of damage to them.”
Unofficial Defense sources report that in Madrid military experts have raised a forecast to political power: the Israeli command, faced with the prospect of introducing its armored units into urban mousetraps, I would consider two options. The first is to enter through the narrow fields that separate the conurbation of Bait Hanun and Jabalia from the border wall, stop their tanks there, isolate the city and penetrate with armored vehicles only in controlled areas, after bag Hamas in small sectors, little by little. The other possibility is to enter directly into the urban area by frontal and massive combat.
“That would imply more casualties for Israel”explains the Marine, an expert in raids. Íñiguez also rules out that possibility, and assumes that the entry into Gaza will be “selective”, probably with the intention of occupying only the north, perhaps ending up handing over the territory to a multinational peacekeeping force.
In this urban combat scenario, the Tzahal (Israel army) has three weapons to fear: the anti-tank rocket launcher, the booby-trapped mine and the sniper rifle. Although FL warns about this that Israel has electronic systems shot origin detectionby sound or by flash, which facilitate the response.
Armored
“Traditionally, Israeli armored vehicles have doubled their armor for urban combat. But whatever they use, Gaza is a mousetrap,” he points out. MA, expert in tank management, although the videos released by Hamas with destroyed Merkavas draw his attention. “It has been a considerable blow to his image. He failed the Trophy system of the car.”
This third soldier consulted points out the role that the Israeli Namer infantry fighting vehicleslittle named, “the largest and heaviest of their kind, which can carry the weight of the infantry protection. Also a division of armored and robotic excavators developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, which, with the armored vehicles, could be the advance to make way for the rest of the armored vehicles in urban terrain.
MA intervenes in the debate on the possible Israeli offensive, and with an equation: “Surgical entry = more Israeli casualties. Unceremonious entry, Russian style = more Palestinian civilian casualties.” The second has “the derivative of the loss of the battle for the story and the consequent international pressure against it”.
In this dilemma, it seems difficult to materialize “a rapid, decisive and overwhelming response”, As the North American president suggested on the 8th, Joe Bidento the Israeli premier, Benjamin Netanyahu. The tanker consulted does not doubt that the attack will be massive: “The one who attacks needs a superiority of 3 to 1, and better yet 5 to 1. There will be many troops on the ground, and therefore casualties.” And he does see the armored incursion into urban areas as possible – “Israeli tanks are reinforced for that type of war” – against an enemy that at the moment cannot be seenand does not fire against the accumulation of Hebrew troops on the border: “They are holding out in their tunnels, avoiding exposurewaiting for the entry of the Israeli soldiers.”
Under ground
The total destruction of Hamas is not expected in the short term, “with its leaders in Qatar or Iran,” the Marine believes. But the Israeli army has said that, in the preparatory bombing that it has been carrying out for days, He has killed Ali Kadhi and Bilal Al Kadercommanders of Mukhba, an elite Hamas guerrilla group, to which Tel Aviv attributes the terrorist offensive of October 7.
The urban warfare that may develop has few precedents. Perhaps the battle for the Chechen capital, Grozny, and 1995; or the tremendous pulse through the Syrian city of Aleppo, between 2012 and 2016, But modern weapons did not intervene there, especially drones, which will play their role now. Nor do the terrible Ukrainian battles of Mariupol and Bakhmutbecause an army was facing another army, and in Gaza army will clash against guerrillas.
“This war is very different from any other,” warns Íñiguez, pointing out three classic keys of military doctrine: “Wanting, being able, knowing.” The first, the will to win, is available to Israel and Hamas. Of the third, technology, Israel has more than enough. The second, the power on the ground… is the unknown. Especially if the time comes neutralize Hamas underground. It is not so unlikely: “In Mariupol the last battle was not fought in the Azovstal steelworks, but in the sewers,” recalls FL
In Gaza, the Israelis will prefer the air attack with armor-piercing bombs, which sink up to 20 meters, to having to enter the tunnels, a scene in which their enemy has the advantage, because he knows them. Especially the Mukhba, with 1,000 troops trained by Iranian officers in urban warfare and underground infiltration. A sector of these Palestinians returned from the front in Syria and Iraq, after fighting for ISIS. In the capture of the Iraqi city of Mosul, the tunnels were a great obstacle.
The one in Gaza is an old conflict, but also very modern: urban warfare has a great future. After all, more than half of the world’s population, 56%, already lives in cities.
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