The vote that al Senate has ditched the bill Zan is the dress rehearsal for the election of the new President of the Republic? What has been just a background for months is beginning to acquire some solidity. And not just because the “trap“On the law against homotransphobia has passed thanks to some fundamentals snipers present in center left. Votes cast by secret ballot, which came to the aid of the center right, which has found a new firmness after weeks of deep internal lacerations. This is why the outcome of Palazzo Madama made the axis that had been created before the summer between the two Matteo become topical again, Renzi and Salvini. Already in June the leader of Italy alive evoked the risk of sinking for the Zan bill, voted in the House together with Pd and there 5 stars, actually extending his hand to head of the League. For the evil ones it represented a strategy: to play with the right, in order to be decisive in the future parliamentary majority that would have had to elect the new head of state.
The “confirmations” of Bersani and La Russa – A game that is now implicitly confirmed by the statements of two long-time politicians of opposing militancy. “On the Zan bill today in the Senate a very serious blow to rights and I fear a dress rehearsal for the fourth ballot for the Quirinale. It is time for the progressive field become fully aware of the situation, ”he wrote on Twitter Pier Luigi Bersani, one that Renzi sul Colle paid for in first person: the famous ones 101 francs shooters which in 2013 destroyed the election of Romano Prodi in fact, they cost the secretariat of the Democratic Party to the current leader of Leu. But that the vote to elect Sergio Mattarella’s successor is evoked by Ignazio La Russa, who rejoices at the halt to the examination of the rule: “The left must know that there is a new majority in Parliament. It should also take this into account in view of the election of the Head of state“. Practically an admission: the vote that drowned the Zan bill, therefore, is not the result of chance. And it could be proposed again in about three months. The question is: who are these snipers who, after the homotransphobia rule, are ready to vote for the head of state with the right?
The snipers who drowned the Zan bill – The Renzians, of course, deny having voted with Lega and Fratelli d’Italia. Teresa Bellanova he even tries to dismiss the suspicions in the field of dem and 5 stars: “Despite the compact vote of Italia Viva, 23 snipers between Pd, Leu and M5S, bury the Zan bill”. Renzi, who just today was not a Madama Palace because it flew in Saudi Arabia, when asked by the agencies, he merely said: “Look at the numbers“. Then he let it be known that he commented with his parents on the outcome of Palazzo Madama: “For months I have been asking to find an agreement to avoid the Zan bill failing. They wanted the fight and these are the consequences. Those who argue about absences would have to deal with the 40 francs shooters. It didn’t matter to know politics, it was enough to know arithmetic ”. Arithmetic says that from 145-149 votes, estimated by the center-left against the “trap” of ddl Zan, he went down to 131: therefore the snipers are among the 14 e i 18. On July 14, the request to suspend the examination of the law was rejected with the rejection of only one vote (136 against 135). Today, on the other hand, they were voting to bury the bill 154 senators, that is 19 more than in July, when, however, fewer than 288 appearances today. They were present at Palazzo Madama 12 of the 16 senators of living Italy, 62 of the 64 of the League, 46 (out of 49) by Forza Italia. In the Democratic Party 2 senators out of 38 were missing, the same number was absent in the 74 group of the M5s. All present, finally, the exponents of Brothers of Italy.
The Colle game – The geography of today’s vote is important because, despite the secret vote, it suggests what could happen three months. For the election of the thirteenth President of the Republic the big voters will be 1.009: 630 deputies, 321 senators, 58 regional delegates. The quorum to elect the head of state on the fourth ballot is set at 505 votes, which drop to 503 since the presidents of the Chamber and Senate do not vote. In a fragmentary situation such as the current one, a fundamental role will be played by the three delegates appointed by 19 Regions, plus the one sent to Rome by Val d’Aosta. Since the center-right governs in 14 Regions (plus the autonomous province of Trento), it will express a number between 34 e 42 delegates. In Parliament, however, the coalition made up of League (196), Come on Italy (129), Brothers of Italy (56), Courage Italy (29) and Idea-Cambiamo (7) starts from at least 417 votes, which can also become 440 fishing among the various components of the Mixed group. Added to the delegates it means that the center-right has at least 455 sure votes, which can grow up to 482. Italia viva can count between 45 senators and deputies: the axis of the two Matteo, therefore, starts from 500 votes – a breath away from the magic threshold of 505 – and can go up to 527, well beyond the quorum. With this scheme, the Renzians would be the tip of the balance. A decisive role only if played in tandem with the center-right, given that the axis is on the other side M5s-Pd-Leu it does not seem to be able to go beyond 412 votes at the moment, including the regional delegates. Much obviously depends on what the main party in Parliament, namely the 5 star movement: will you propose a name? Will look for one synthesis with the Pd? On the other hand the match from Enrico Letta is the one that has the most candidates for Mattarella’s succession: Dario Franceschini, Walter Veltroni, David Sassoli, Paolo Gentiloni. They are all former allies of Renzi, to whom the former prime minister would be happy to bar the Colle road. That’s why the leader of the small party of Italy alive looks to his namesake in the League for the post-Mattarella. At this point the two Matteo are missing only one thing: a name to push to Quirinale.