Georgian policy has once again proved its unpredictability. On Friday evening, ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili was arrested on the territory of the republic, having secretly infiltrated there a day before the municipal elections. Returning to his homeland, Mr. Saakashvili, through social networks, called on fellow citizens to “protect the votes” during the counting of ballots, and on October 3 “to fill the Freedom Square”, where the “Rose Revolution” began in November 2003. Now he himself will not go to the square and, moreover, can spend at least six years in prison. However, a significant part of Georgia’s population, divided along political lines, can be very angry with the arrest of the ex-president.
No right of appeal
Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili made a sensational statement on the arrest of the third president of Georgia on Friday evening. According to him, the State Security Service and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country from beginning to end monitored the movement of Mr. Saakashvili from Ukraine, where he lived in recent years, to Georgia. The prime minister promised that all the rights of the ex-president will be strictly observed.
According to the TV Pirveli TV channel, Mikhail Saakashvili was detained in one of the apartments on Guramishvili Avenue in Tbilisi; he did not offer any resistance to the law enforcement officers. The ex-president was taken to a prison in the city of Rustavi, located a few dozen kilometers from Tbilisi.
Recall that several criminal cases were initiated in his homeland against the politician who left Georgia in 2013. In particular, he was accused of exceeding his authority, embezzling budget funds, dispersing protests in November 2007, illegal seizure of property from billionaire Badri Patarkatsishvili, and involvement in the pogrom at the Imedi TV company. Two sentences have already been passed. First, Mikheil Saakashvili’s guilt was proven in the case of the murder of banker Sandro Girgvliani – the ex-president received three years in prison in absentia for pardoning convicts bypassing the procedure established by law, which was regarded as “abuse of office.” Secondly, the court sentenced the ex-president to six years in prison for “abuse of power” in the case of an armed attack on deputy Valery Gelashvili.
The sentences are not cumulative, so, according to current data, the politician will have to be released in six years.
Prosecutor Jarji Tsiklauri said on Friday that the court’s verdicts are final and not subject to appeal. In addition, he added that now the law enforcement agencies of Georgia are investigating the fact of illegal crossing of the state border by the ex-president.
“Good morning Georgia”
The return of Mikhail Saakashvili to his homeland was, on the one hand, a surprise, and on the other, it was quite expected. In the summer and in September, the ex-president announced his arrival several times, and the day before he even told the details: allegedly he was supposed to fly to Georgia on a flight that would land in Tbilisi on Saturday at 23:05 local time. But in the end, on Friday morning, the politician published a statement of return on his Facebook page. “Good morning Georgia. Already from Georgia eight years later, ”wrote Mikhail Saakashvili, recalling how in November 2013, immediately after the expiration of his presidential term, he left the country.
Soon, Mr. Saakashvili posted on his page two videos filmed in Batumi. He urged his compatriots to come to the polls, then “defend the votes” during the counting of ballots, and on October 3 “fill the Freedom Square”, where the “Rose Revolution” began in November 2003 (as a result, we recall, Mikhail Saakashvili came to power , having removed from the post of President Eduard Shevardnadze). “I will be with you, and if there are 100 thousand of us … there is no force capable of defeating us,” the ex-president assured.
However, then Mikhail Saakashvili disappeared from sight. And the authorities began to pretend that he was not on the territory of the country. For example, Mamuka Mdinaradze, deputy speaker of parliament from the Georgian Dream (GM) party, assured in the afternoon that the video with Mikhail Saakashvili’s participation was “a fake, concocted using high technologies.” He argued that the politician “did not leave Ukraine anywhere” and “spreads the video, hiding there in some kind of hole.” Sources of various media both in Tbilisi and Kiev asserted that Mikhail Saakashvili did not cross the border in any direction.
At about 3 pm local time, a written appeal to the nation by Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili was circulated, which did not contain a clear answer to the question of whether the ex-head of state had entered his homeland. “The riots are being replicated. This is at a time when the country most of all needs peace of mind for tomorrow’s elections to be open, fair and free, ”Ms. Zurabishvili noted.“ It’s true (the return of Mikhail Saakashvili. “B”) or a lie, this topic by itself violates the calm pre-election environment and inflames the situation and society, which is already tired. “
But less than five hours later, Prime Minister Garibashvili spoke at a briefing about the ex-president’s arrest. And a new video with his participation appeared on the page of Mikhail Saakashvili. “With a high degree of probability, I will now be detained in Tbilisi, but I must tell you: do not be afraid of anything. Go to the polls tomorrow, vote – and on the 3rd day we will all celebrate the victory together, ”the ex-president said.
“Mikhail was ready for this,” David Sakvarelidze, one of the leaders of the Ukrainian “New Forces Movement” party, commented on the Ukraine 24 TV channel’s detention. “There is no panic in our ranks, in the ranks of his friends and associates. It was a deliberate step, a bold act. The act of a person who simply did not want to live somewhere distant, somewhere in comfort and decided to join the battle, into battle. “
Late in the evening, Salome Zurabishvili again commented on the situation around Mikhail Saakashvili, assuring that he arrived in Georgia to destabilize the situation, and despite the advice of international partners. And the ex-president’s pardon, as the current head of state said, is definitely not worth expecting from her.
Non-municipal elections
Georgian political scientist Georgy Khukhashvili assured Kommersant that the ex-president was clearly counting on the political process that will now begin. “Saakashvili in prison is a huge headache for the authorities,” the source told Kommersant. He believes that the fate of the ex-president will be decided not by possible rallies, no matter how massive they may be, but by the outcome of the elections. “After our victory in the elections, Mikheil Saakashvili will be the first to congratulate the Georgian people on their historic victory, while out of prison, but very soon – from freedom,” said Nikanor Melia, chairman of Mikanor Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) party.
Let us remind that the Saturday voting from the very beginning was of fundamental importance for all political forces in Georgia. It was obvious that if the GM does not gain more than 43% of the vote, the opposition will demand the appointment of early parliamentary elections. Opponents of the current authorities referred to the so-called Charles Michel Agreement, signed by the parties to the Georgian conflict on April 19 with the direct participation of the President of the European Council. However, the GM recently withdrew from this agreement, and the chairman of the party, Irakli Kobakhidze, warned: “There will be no extraordinary parliamentary elections, even if the Georgian Dream gets 0% of the vote.”
The main contenders in the elections are considered GM, UNM and the party of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia “For Georgia” (ZG). Sociological service Edison Research-Georgia predicts the following results: GM – 36%, UNM – 27%; ZG – 11%. All other parties do not gain even 4% of the vote. According to IPSOS-Georgia, the breakdown is as follows: 35%, 30% and 9%, respectively. These two polls were commissioned by the opposition media. On the other hand, Imedi TV, which is close to GM and ordered a survey from GORBI, published other data: GM – 53.6%, UNM – 27.7% and ZG – 6.5%.
Hundreds of European observers came to monitor the elections in Georgia. And they are clearly not in the mood to watch the next Georgian revolution. For example, MEP Viola Von Cramon warned Mikhail Saakashvili even before Friday’s scandal that his return to his homeland “will not help reduce the polarization in the country” and “does not meet the interests of Georgia.” Now, however, sentiment may change. At the very least, Mikhail Saakashvili’s associates will try to convince the international community in every possible way that this is an unacceptable persecution in any civilized state for political reasons.
At the same time, one country has already expressed dissatisfaction with what happened. “We are closely following reports of the arrest of Mikhail Saakashvili, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the National Council of Reforms of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is concerned about the news and the tone of statements that are heard in Georgia regarding the possible development of the situation, – wrote the press secretary of the Ukrainian head of state Serhiy Nikiforov on Facebook. citizen “. The US State Department told RIA Novosti that they are calling on the Georgian authorities to ensure a policy of “fair treatment in accordance with Georgian laws and the country’s obligations in the field of international law.” “We are not interested in his fate,” Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, told TASS news agency.
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